More with Less Policing

Stop me if you've hear this one before:

Higher unemployment will drive more people to seek an illegitimate income, and budget shortfalls will force cities and counties to cut back on police officers, or at least fail to hire enough new ones to cope with their growing populations.

This prediction, from The Economist's "World in 2009" review, suggests that a new policing strategy will necessarily surmount the resource-intensive "zero tolerance" model pioneered in NYC in the early Nineties and adopted in most big city police departments since. The article continues:

The approach that will come to prominence in 2009 is almost the exact opposite of zero tolerance. Rather than cracking down on petty offenders such as turnstile-jumpers and squeegee men, the authorities will focus on those who are most likely to kill or be killed. Some may be drug dealers recently released from prison. Others may be the associates of people recently wounded by gunfire. What makes the approach particularly novel is that it depends on local people. Rather than insisting on zero tolerance from the police, it tries to change what the residents of crime-infested areas will tolerate.

This approach, pioneered in Boston and refined in Chicago, aptly describes Seattle's own Youth Violence Prevention Initiative (YVPI). Seattle's plan focuses government resources on the 800 or so youth identified as likely to commit future acts of violence. The YVPI uses a "case management" model to capture the target population, offer them various kinds of support, and allow opportunities for their behavior to be monitored and measured.

The notion that it "depends on local people" is a debatable feature of Seattle's YVPI. Using community resources and guiding a community's expectations by involving them in crime fighting is supposed to be what makes this strategy cheap compared with "broken windows."

One aspect of the program, the use of "violence interrupters" ties it to Chicago's CeaseFire program and provides at least an shred of community involvement -- the community in this case being ex-con or former gang member (the interrupter) with enough street credibility to diffuse potential violence before it erupts.

The YVPI conspicuously lacks another of piece Chicago's CeaseFire program -- community "responses" at the scenes of all shootings. These aren't built into the Seattle program precisely because the City has not developed the capacity to mobilize the community.

Seattle City Councilman Burgess affirms the need for community involvement in a recent Op Ed without pointing to any institutional framework for community involvement:

Most important, the initiative recognizes that one of the most effective ways to prevent violence is for community members to engage directly with at-risk youth, to challenge norms tolerating violence, and to encourage young people to speak out when violence strikes.

Two points to make here:

1) City officials have gone out of their way to champion their Youth Violence Prevention Initiative as "community-led" and "community-driven," which it is not. It is a smart "technocratic" strategy that leverages existing bureaucracy and expertise. It is led by government administrators, and driven by law enforcement, education, juvenile justice, and social welfare professionals.

2) I doubt the CeaseFire-like aspects of the YVPI signal a titanic shift in Seattle from one model of policing to another, but they do highlight a police force stretched dangerously thin and, owing to a tight budget, apt to see hiring levels reduced sometime in the next year. I have high hopes that case management for 800 kids will result in fewer shootings in our neighborhoods, but I'm skeptical that it will effect residential burglaries in Seward Park or other parts of the city. Budget woes or no, Seattle can't skimp on police hiring.

Thoughts on the Youth Violence Prevention Initiative

Last Tuesday, I attended the meeting of the City Council's Public Safety Committee (available here in its entirety), and what follows are a few observations about the briefing on the City's Youth Violence Prevention Initiative (YVPI).

Council members attending were: Tim Burgess, Bruce Harrell, Nick Lacata, and Sally Clark. Other key attendees: Holly Miller (Office for Education), Sid Sidorowicz (Office for Education), Doug Carey (Department of Finance), Jim Diaz (Interim Police Chief), James Kelly (Urban League), Jamila Taylor (Urban League's YVPI administrator), Mark Worsham (County Juvenile Court), Pegi McEvoy (Seattle Public Schools)

The plan as it was initially announced to the public had a 9.2 million dollar budget. According to Doug Carey of the Mayor's office, "because of budget balancing needs and one select program reduction, the Council action resulted in an 8 million dollar initiative over two years."

The intended outcomes of the YVPI are:

• A 50% reduction in court referrals for juvenile crimes against persons commited by youth residing in the Central Area, Southeast Area, and Southwest Area Networks
• A 50% reduction in the number of suspensions/expulsions due to violence-related incidents at Denny, Aki Kurose, Madrona K-8, Madison, and Washington Middle Schools

Councilman Burgess pointed out that for similar programs across the nation, success often means reductions of 2.5% to 20%, which is far less ambitious than the YVPI's.

The Mayor's office announced that, in addition to the middle school "emphasis officers" the YVPI includes, they intend to apply for Recovery Act (stimulus) funds to provide emphasis officers for high schools as well.

Holly Miller, interim YVPI director, said that the plan is a "community-led and community-driven process." She said that "this is not going to be resolved by the government." Her example of how the YVPI is "leveraging community resources," was that somebody from the Seattle Vocational Institute called her the other day and said they have training slots and pre-apprenticeship programs available for youth in the program.

Pegi McEvoy of Seattle Public Schools affirmed that "it is the mobilization at the community level that we're doing with the Urban League that will allow us to be successful."

A potential weakness of the program is that, where "community involvement" is concerned, the government administrators have a bias toward engaging established institutions like nonprofits and educational institutions. The YVPI administrators are overstating the level of community involvement when they think of "the community" only in terms of citizens who have connections with groups like the Urban League.

Under the plan, payment of 10% of the contracts with providers are contingent on meeting performance targets.

Interim Police Chief John Diaz confirmed that the new 6 person Gang Unit day squad will start work on April 15th. They will patrol "the high schools and corridors."

* * *

Last Tuesday afternoon in Council chambers, there was a reassuring air of confidence and optimism among the assembled notables. They lauded their "tremendous group work" so far and expressed "delight" with the "magnificent effort on the City's part and the Police Department's part." There was laughter and thanks for everybody's contributions and a sense of accomplishment that suggests something powerful is in the offing.

I caution humility to all those involved in this promising initiative: across town at Rainier and Othello, not an hour earlier, in broad daylight, there was an execution-style shooting. Until further notice, further congratulations are not in order.

Choice Words from the City Council Prez on Police Staffing

Rumor has it that at the last City Neighborhood Council meeting, city council president Richard Conlin volunteered that, due to a tough budget climate, future hiring for the Seattle Police Department may be on the chopping block.

Here is a good place to say that SPD South Precinct staffing is the number one, slam-dunk priority shared by our community and our local patrol officers. There is a lot we can do and have failed to do as a community, and there is room for debate about what the best approach to solving our youth violence problem in the medium to long term, but there is no question that more police resources are immediately needed on our streets -- a beefed up gang unit, foot patrols in select neighborhoods, more total hours for 911 responders.

By way of reassuring a community member that he wasn't proposing a hiring freeze for the SPD, Mr. Conlin wrote the following:

...we may need to consider slowing down filling the new positions that were added in the 2009-2010 budgets. Since new recruits train for almost a year that would have no impact in the near term on crime issues. It would simply be stretching out the five year expansion plan. Might be better to be cautious now than to hire people spend money training them and then have to do layoffs if the budget picture worsens.

In the rarefied world of city politics, there may be some distinction to draw between a hiring freeze and "slowing down filling the new positions," but for us in the Southeast, where crime and violence are an undeniable commonplace, we take the withdrawal of police resources, however temporary, as an insult.

The South Precinct does not have the personnel it needs to do its job. I hear the complaints and the excuses officers feel compelled to make for not providing the level of service the community needs. I wonder why Mr. Conlin hasn't.

I wonder why, when there's not enough police to start with, he thinks it's a consolation that the "slowing down" will only affect us after a year or so when new police don't start work in the South Precinct?

New Information on the Mayor's Youth Violence Prevention Initiative

For anybody who might care to wade through 38 pages of the mesmerizing prose government bureaucracies churn out, here is the most fleshed out info I've seen yet about the goals, methodology, and implementation of the Mayor's Youth Violence Prevention Initiative. Nothing on specific partners the City will be working with though.

Crime & Crime Prevention in the East Precinct

The Central District News reports that, according to the SPD, crime was down last month in the East Precinct. This is great news, as long as it's true. Past "errors" concerning crime statistics for the South Precinct make it clear that great news about crime in high crime neighborhoods should be met with some skepticism.

In other ambiguously good news, though the City cut the East Precinct's Crime Prevention Coordinator position at exactly the worst time, given the gang wars in the Southeast and Central Districts, the Central District News reports that, between the Mayor's office and the SPD, there is some will to restore it.

SEDC Approves Statement on Youth Violence

Last night at the Southeast District Council meeting, the group voted to approve the following statement on youth violence:

The youth violence problem in the Southeast Seattle is severe and getting worse. Our South Precinct is understaffed and should quickly be staffed up to the levels promised. The mayor and city council should give the youth violence issue the attention it deserves and sustain that attention until the issues are addressed. The member organizations of the Southeast District Council endorsing this statement pledge to involve themselves directly in whatever way they are able to support SE's youth, schools, and families, and recommend that the city takes neighborhood and business groups into account as the city formulates its youth violence initiative.

All attending groups voted yes except the Othello Neighborhood Association, which abstains on all votes, and the Rainier Othello Safety Association, which considered the statement too weakly worded.

I hope ROSA will make its alternative "statement with teeth" widely available, follow through on whatever action they propose, and lobby other groups in the Southeast and Central Districts to join them. I'm sure other SEDC members will be interested in taking as active a role in confronting our youth violence problem as ROSA clearly intends to.

Fantasy Basketball

Sometime soon, Mayor Nickels will appoint a new police chief. Whether it ends up being Diaz, Metz, or some dynamic outsider, it would be a mistake to pin too many hopes on his choice because no police chief will care enough about youth violence in the Southeast and Central Districts to solve the problem. It’s our kids that are getting killed and we’re the ones who suffer in this atmosphere of insecurity and violence. Looking to somebody from the outside to come in and solve our problems is a recipe for continued disappointment.

The following excerpt, from a story in the Seattle Times on gangs in local schools, illustrates the point:

Because of those hostilities, Garfield, in the heart of the Central District, and Rainier Beach, a south end school, didn’t schedule a basketball game this year.

“We decided it wouldn’t be appropriate at this time,” said Robert Gary, principal at Rainier Beach. He said the concern wasn’t students but “outside elements” who might make students afraid to go to a game at Garfield or Rainier Beach.

Reading this, it’s hard not to click your tongue and think “so it’s come to this?” With this one act, the City, schools, and police showed that the problem is beyond them. Pity a public school or neighborhood or society whose agenda is set by feuding boys.

Read the Full Article

Elected Officials & SE Seattle Leaders Need to Get Serious About Youth Violence Epidemic

On the occasion of his annual State of the City address, Mayor Greg Nickels was in our neighborhood spreading election year cheer about crime. A mile from the spot where, a week and a half before, gunmen had shot 19 bullets into the living room of a woman who was home alone watching television, he called the crime rate in Seattle “a cause for optimism.” These past months, the Mayor has rarely missed an opportunity to tout with satisfaction the historic lows in crime he’s presided over.

As euphoric as our public officials are about the low crime rate, when it comes to the youth violence problem in the Central and Southeast Districts, they are unusually circumspect, describing it in terms of “perception”. The gang war in our neighborhoods has been lumped together with issues like public urination under the rubric “perceptions of social disorder.”

Read the Full Article

Proposed Statement on Neighborhood Youth Violence for Consideration by the SEDC

Here is what I will ask the Southeast District Council tonight:

Last week at a rally held in response to Tyrone Love's murder Mayor Nickels said that "we need to commit that it is the last time we see that happen in this neighborhood, in this community." But we know it probably will happen again in the Central District and in the Southeast District too, because nothing fundamental has changed.

We have to do more. It's going to take the best efforts of government, community groups, parents, and citizens together, offering mutual support and holding each other accountable to solve our youth violence problem

In order to start to come together as leaders around a problem we recognize as severe and escalating, to be watchful over the resources committed to our community, and to hold government accountable for the role it needs to play, I would like the SEDC to consider endorsing the following points:

• The youth violence problem in the South Precinct is severe and is getting worse
• The South Precinct is understaffed and should be staffed up to the level promised
• Mayor Nickels and the City Council should give the youth violence the attention it deserves

While these points, which the South Seattle Crime Prevention Council endorses, are not particularly specific or ambitious, they can serve as the basis for some consensus among community groups in the Southeast District.

The cycle of violence and retaliation is picking up pace, sucking more people into its logic, and inevitably touching citizens who have nothing to do with gangs. Something has to give.

At this moment, confronting gang violence and saving our children from harm should be the priority of southeast Seattle's community leadership, including the Southeast District Council.

I'm asking the SEDC to endorse these points as an organization, and for membership organizations to write letters to the Mayor and the City Council expressing their concern about youth violence in our community.

Some Teens are Not Smart

On Tuesdays, I tutor Somali refugee kids in Seatac. I do it for selfish reasons - I get to learn a little about the Somali community by osmosis and the students benefit from my help (unless there's high school math in the mix, in which case they're on their own). It's often fun and always interesting.

I've been intending to write about civic participation by the Somali community in South Seattle. After spending a few months interviewing leaders of Seattle's East African community I started to feel like I was getting press-release generalities. I was asking them to tell me, a stranger, about how their lives work. I'm sure my questions weren't particularly insightful. In short, I got the insights I deserved.

I came to recognize that I couldn't expect to know the Somali community unless I was willing to meet them on their own terms. As a tutor, I have the advantage of not needing or expecting to learn anything in particular. The likelihood of gaining the trust necessary for real sharing between people is increased by my willingness to give up a couple of hours a week to help out.

I snatched up my first gem a couple of weeks ago at the orientation class for new tutors. The instructor offered the following example, from an essay on street gangs written by a high school senior, of the difficulties of cross-cultural communication:

Some teens are smart. Some teens are not smart. That is why they need help not to join gang.

"What did this mean?" she asked. Somebody speculated that the student was making a connection between lack of education and crime. Others danced around this idea that it's stupid people who join gangs. Of course, this was all wrong.

What the student meant was that it's perfectly fine for people to join gangs as long as they know how to handle themselves. Imprudent teens who don't know how to keep themselves out of serious trouble are the ones who need to be saved from the gangs. They'll be the ones going to jail and killing each other. In this way of thinking, gangsterism is kind of like skydiving: it looks dangerous to the uninitiated, but with the proper expertise and preparation, it's perfectly safe.

This explanation met with general disapproval. A fellow trainee raised his hand, "As tutors, if we hear something like this, should we tell them that what they're saying is wrong?" I didn't catch the reply, I was off somewhere daydreaming about smart skydivers.

The high school essayist, who no doubt would fit neatly into the "at risk youth" category, was conveying some real, insider wisdom about the calculus of gang membership. But upstanding adults, always ready with our wisdom and righteousness, aren't prepared to hear it. We'd like to edit the faulty reasoning out of a term paper, as if that will make it disappear from the world.

Instead of answering gang violence with repression and violence, Seattle has settled on watching certain kids as much as possible to make sure they're not doing wrong, dissuading them from joining gangs, co-opting them with better alternatives. The idea of hanging out with teens more and reasoning with them informs every part of the the Mayor's $9M "Youth Violence Prevention Initiative". What's missing, I think, is a real understanding of the course of action we're trying to lure them away from.

Short of following the rabid advice of the readers of our local newspapers - encouraging young men to kill each other, shipping them all to Venezuela - solving our gang violence problem is going to require of us adults the humility to sit down with surly, hormonal teens and learn the math that puts them in a gang.

What I've Been Up To

My most recent piece of writing, published at the Rainier Valley Post blog, is I think, the best writing I've done to date. It's called "The Wrong Side of MLK: A Dispatch from the Nation's Most Diverse Zip Code" and is basically my attempt to answer the question, "What is it like to live in southeast Seatte?"

Like my last writing project, it's also an attempt to shine a light on how grassroots civic participation in southeast Seattle works - who participates, what are the terms of participation, who doesn't participate and why, and what social groups are aligned around particular issues.

I plan to make this the focus of my research and writing for the next couple of years. I'll write about my impressions as I go along here.